S&P 500, energy, gold, and bitcoin futures overview

S&P 500 (H)

On a higher timeframe basisOn 1/18/22 the break below the 4629.25 line warned of decent pressure and negated the medium- term bullish trend we were in since 3/23/20.  On 8/22/22 we left a medium-term bearish reversal above, that has brought in 676.75 of pressure from the 4178.75  open.  These are ON HOLDOn a lower timeframe basis:  I warned of possible exhaustion at 3531.25-04.75 which had the potential to trigger a bullish correction with minimum target of 3793.00—we held this with a 3502.00 low and have bounced 678.00, taking the target out; but the higher timeframe minimum target is 4190.50—we came just shy of this with a 4180.00 high this morning.  These are ON HOLD.   I warned if the 4180.00 high held, it would likely start a bearish correction to exceed 224.00 from the high—we have seen 391.50.  This is ON HOLD.   The trade above 3851.94 (-.37 per/hour) warned of renewed strength—we  have seen 157.50.  The trade above 3874.02(-42 per/hour) has brought in 99.25 of strength.  However, this went out weak on the day and poised for pressure.    Decent trade below 3860.60 (+.28 per/hour starting at 9:30am) will project this downward.  Decent trade below 3839.54 (+19 per/hour) will also warn of decent pressure; but if we break below here decently and back above decently, look for decent short covering. 

Gold (G)

On a higher timeframe basis: I cautioned on 8/16/18 the break above $1,179.7-$1,183.7 warned of renewed strength.  We have seen $905.5. The break above $1,347.0 projected this upward $80 minimum, $320 (+) maximum.  We have attained $744.2.  These are OFF HOLD.  We held major exhaustion at $2,071.6-93.2 with a $2,089.2 high and rolled over $46.7.  We rolled over from $2,079.6 for $456.6. These are ON HOLD.  On a lower timeframe basis:  The break above $1,641.2 (+1 tic per/hour) has brought in $245.2 of strength.  The solid trade above $1,679.5 (-1 tic per/hour) put this above a major formation –we are projected upward $80 minimum.  We have attained $206.9 so far.  The trade above $1,752.1 (-.3 of a tic per/hour) has brought in $134.3 of the strength warned about.  We are in a third stretch of higher timeframe bull structure.  I would be aware of areas of possible exhaustion to contend with on the way up at $1,907.1-23.3, which are both a combination of lower and higher timeframe exhaustion.  The break above $1,860.0 warned of renewed strength—we have seen $26.4.  Decent trade below $1,873.4 (+1 tic per/hour starting at 5:00am) should bring in decent pressure. 

Bitcoin

On a higher timeframe basis: The roll over on 11/10/21 put this into a bearish trend.  I warned the selloff should exceed $13,000 from the high of $69,355—we have seen $54,430 of this.  We held exhaustion on a bullish correction of the move down at $59,545 and rolled over $44,620.  We have come off $36,080 from the $51,005 close. On a lower timeframe basis:  The trade below $34,830 put this below a significant bearish formation that projected this downward $13,000 minimum, $35,000 (+) maximum.  We have attained $19,905.  We held exhaustion at $25,265-495 with a $25,270 high and rolled over $10,345.  We held exhaustion at $22,630 with a $22,875 high and rolled over $7,950.   The break below $18,065 (-5 tics per/hour) brought in $3,140 of the pressure warned about.  These are ON HOLD.  The break back above $16,275-60 has brought in $1,165 of strength.  The  trade above 17244 (+3 per/hour) warns of continued higher trade. Decent trade back below where it comes in at 17303 (+3 per/hour starting at 6:00am) will negate the bias above.  Decent trade back below $16,564 (-1.6 per/hour starting at 6:00am) will warn of decent pressure.

Crude Oil (WTI) (G)

On  a macro basis:  On 4/29/20 we left a bullish reversal below—we have seen $115.13 from that open at $15.37 in the (N). We took out a major trendline at $55.15, which warned of significant strength. We have seen $75.35.  The break above $57.45-8.02 projected this upward $56 minimum, $89 (+) maximum. We attained $72.48.  These are ON HOLD.  On a shorter-term basis:  Trade below $119.15 brought in $49.07 of pressure. The trade below $111.00 brought in $40.92 of pressure. The trade below $97.18 projected this down $8.30 (+) maximum. These are OFF HOLD.   We held exhaustion below with a $70.31 low and bounced $11.19 into a lower timeframe bullish correction against the move down from $83.34.  This is ON HOLD.  We are in a bearish correction/trend against the move up from $70.31, with the last area of possible exhaustion (if it is a correction) coming in at $72.70—we basically held this with a $72.46 low and bounced $4.28–this has the potential to start a multi-week bull structure.  The decent trade below $76.79 projects this downward $4.70—we attained $4.33 before short covering off the low.  I noted we left a medium-term bearish reversal above Wednesday that also warned of pressure.  Decent trade above $76.60 will negate this and warn of renewed strength.  Trade above $79.98 will project this upward $8.40 minimum, $25.80 (+) maximum.

Natural Gas (G)

On a higher timeframe basis:  The trade below 8208 warned of decent pressure.  I warned decent trade below 7188 would be a renewed sign of weakness—we came off 3668 tics.   I would NOTE: The trade below 5136-4993 projects this downward $2.80 minimum, $5.30 (+) maximum, which could be seen within 3 month’s time—we have traded $1.690 lower.  These are ON HOLD.   If we break solidly back above 5048-192, this will warn of solid higher trade for weeks, likely toward 7800 (+).  On a shorter-term basis:  The trade above 3733 (-8 tics per/hour) warned of strength.  Decent trade back below where this comes in at 3507 (-8 tics per/hour starting at 8:00am) should bring in decent pressure. 

Commodities trading involves a substantial degree of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Michael Moor does not guarantee profits and is not responsible for any trading losses of subscribers. No representation is made, stated or implied, that any investor will achieve results, profits or losses, even remotely similar to hypothetical results. Past performance is by no means indicative of future results. Information provided in this newsletter is not to be deemed as an offer or solicitation with respect to the sale of purchase of any securities or commodities. Any copy, reprint, broadcast or distribution of this report of any kind is strictly prohibited without the express written consent of Michael Moor. Michael Moor may execute transactions in a proprietary trading account that may be consistent or inconsistent with the contents of the newsletter. The content, statements, and viewpoints expressed in this publication are those of Michael Moor solely in his individual capacity and are not attributable to any person or entity other than Michael Moor



Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and may not reflect those of Kitco Metals Inc. The author has made every effort to ensure accuracy of information provided; however, neither Kitco Metals Inc. nor the author can guarantee such accuracy. This article is strictly for informational purposes only. It is not a solicitation to make any exchange in commodities, securities or other financial instruments. Kitco Metals Inc. and the author of this article do not accept culpability for losses and/ or damages arising from the use of this publication.


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